Polls vs. Odds

What voters say. What bettors bet.

Election Day is Tuesday, November 3. These odds come from public polls and betting markets.

House of Representatives

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Senate

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Where polls and the odds disagree

Polls ask voters. Betting markets are people putting money on the outcome. Usually they agree. These are the races where they don't. Tap one to see why.

Senate

    House

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      The closest races

      These could go either way. Tap one for the details.

      Senate

        House

          How the odds have changed

          Democrats' chance of winning the House
          Democrats' chance of winning the Senate

          Where these numbers come from

          We average three sources. Polls count for half. Two betting markets, where people bet real money on the outcome, split the other half.

          How we read the polls
          1. We collect every public poll from VoteHub.
          2. Newer polls, bigger polls and polls of likely voters count more.
          3. Pollsters with a strong track record count more. Ratings come from 538's last pollster ratings.
          4. Polls paid for by a party count half as much, and we adjust them slightly against that party.
          5. We average the polls in each race, then account for how far off polls usually are. A 3-point lead is about a 70% chance, not a sure thing.
          6. For the Senate, we play out the election 20,000 times. Polling misses tend to go the same way everywhere, so the simulation includes that.
          Which pollsters can you trust?

          Rating is from 538's 2024 pollster ratings. "Usually leans" compares each pollster's 2026 results with other polls of the same races.

          Every poll from the last 45 days
          Sources and fine print
          • Polls: VoteHub. Betting markets: Polymarket and Kalshi. Pollster ratings: 538 (2024). Photos: Wikipedia and the U.S. Congress.
          • House districts use the same three sources. The polling estimate starts from how the district voted for president in 2024 (as redrawn for 2026, calculated by The Downballot), shifts it by how much national polls have moved since, adds a bump for incumbents, and folds in any local polls. Districts are then adjusted together so all 435 add up to the national forecast.
          • Independent Senate candidates are counted with Democrats in the seat totals. If independents end up deciding control, we count it as a coin flip.
          • Polls refresh several times a day.
          • Not affiliated with any of these sources. Betting odds are not financial advice.